Expired Payroll Tax-Cut Barely Noticed by Workers

In January, the payroll tax cut expired, meaning that paychecks are now 2% less than they were before. Many economists predicted that consumer confidence and spending would suffer as a result, but it turns out that retail sales actually rose higher than expected, and consumer confidence rebounded. In fact, Bankrate.com surveyed workers and found that 48% of respondents didn't even notice that they were being paid less. 7% said that the loss has not had an affect on their finances.

“It’s very encouraging. It means other things going on are helping,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. "We are weathering the storm well, at least so far, better than I would have thought."

However, Zandi also cautioned that the impact could take longer to become evident and that the results of the survey may not be accurate since it is only based on consumer perceptions. He said that there is a "wealth effect" currently taking place because of record highs in the stock market and a rebounding real estate market. These two things themselves do not put more money into American's pockets, but people seem to be willing to save less and spend more.

“The job creation numbers were sufficient to make consumers believe that their economic situation was improving,” said Richard Curtin, director of Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center, which publishes a monthly survey of consumer confidence. In February, consumer sentiment rose nearly  5% over January’s figure.  “Hours increased and employment increased, so more people had more money in their income even if taxes were higher,” Curtin said.   42 percent of the workers surveyed said that they cut their spending. These respondents were middle class with household incomes between $50,000 and $75,000.

It isn't really surprising that so many people did not notice the disappearance of the tax cut. It was created to give Americans a few more bucks on their checks in hopes that they would turn around and feed that money back into the economy without realizing it. It was a stealthy boost that consumers weren't meant to even notice.

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